I suppose you could say the news from the state Economic and Revenue Update is boring. Manufacturing is expected to be strong, employment is up, housing starts are up, consumer spending is up. Ho Hum.
But I say we should count our lucky stars we live here. The biggest global economic uncertainty of the moment is centered in Europe, and we have very little exposure to that market. More than half of Washington's trade is with Asia, and nearly a quarter is with North America. The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council believes the EU debt crisis is not a threat to Washington.
Washington the number one place to start a business
1/12/2010 12:07:21 PM
According to U.S. News and World Report, "The Evergreen State tops the list by coming in second on the New State Economy Index and fifth on the Small Business Survival Index. Washington is first among the states in steps toward energy efficiency and using more alternative-energy sources. It also has a highly productive manufacturing sector, signaling high wages and a tech-intensive economy. Washington leads the nation in value added per production hour as a percentage of the national average-the difference in value between inputs in the production process and the value of the units as finally sold. But in addition to these nonpolitical factors, Washington also has very low taxes, making the costs of growing a business quite low. It does not have its own income or capital-gains taxes, either personal or corporate."
Can you throw an economist farther than you can trust one?
1/5/2010 12:47:38 PM
Probably.
The state employment forecast is out, predicting the rate of job gowth and which occupations will be hot. Look for professional and business services along with health services and education to be big in 2012.
But economists are not very good at predicting the future. National Public Radio's "Planet Money" reports that "Economic forecasters failed to predict the 1982 recession or the 1984 recovery or the late 1990 stock bubble or the 2001 recession."
Economist Simon Johnson from MIT says "Economic forecasting is inherently an impossible task." Unpredictable things happen, he claims, letting forecasters off the hook.
Why do we listen to them? Because both business and government have to plan, and we have to work with some scenario to help customers succeed. One thing we know for sure--whatever it looks like, the future is coming.
Well? Is the recession over, or not? It depends on where you live.
The best thinking at the state Economic & Revenue Forecast Council is that overall, “the [state} economy is growing again, but job growth is lagging.” It expects unemployment to bottom out in first quarter of next year, in a U shaped recovery that will have us dragging along the bottom for some time.
Economic performance varies across the state. Read on to see how regions have fared with unemployment and retail sales.
The Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council thinks so. They say that once we have the final numbers, the recession will have ended in the third quarter of 2009. This is small comfort to the 8.9% of us who are unemployed. How do they calculate the bottom of a recession? It has to do with the growth of the Gross Domestic Product.
The economy faltered in May, according to the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, but June "showed some hopeful signs."
