Retail recovery, one county at a time

Well? Is the recession over, or not? It depends on where you live.

The best thinking at the state Economic & Revenue Forecast Council is that overall, “the [state} economy is growing again, but job growth is lagging.” It expects unemployment to bottom out in first quarter of next year, in a U shaped recovery that will have us dragging along the bottom for some time.

The table below shows that the Seattle Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was hardest hit both in terms of the number of jobs lost and the percentage that represents.

Another indicator showing a wide variation across the state is taxable retail sales. Economists look at retail sales because in the U.S., personal consumption expenditures account for about two-thirds of the GDP. Retail sales signal consumer willingness to spend, allowing policy makers to assess the likely growth of personal consumption, and therefore the economy as a whole.

Some areas are already showing strength. Ferry, Klickitat, and Wahkiakum counties had double digit growth over the most recent year for which we have data. Unfortunately, together they only make up 0.2% of our economy. Statewide, taxable retail sales dropped 14%. Together, King, Snohomish and Pierce counties make up nearly 60% of all sales, and the dollar value shrunk 16%, while the rest of the state saw a drop of just over 11%.  

The good news? The recovery may be slow, but it will be steady, and Washington will rebound faster than the nation because our global trading partners came out of recession in the second quarter of 2009. The council anticipates that we will have turned the corner in the third quarter, and notes that job losses have slowed.

Data from Economic & Revenue Forecast Council, State of Washington Economic Review: November 6, 2009